Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
